深圳市居民出行结构演变特征分析及公共交通发展政策启示

Analysis of Shenzhen Residents Travel Structure Evolution Characteristics and Enlightenment on Public Transport Development Policy

深圳市2016年的公交分担率相比2010年并未明显提升,引发了城市轨道交通是否能切实缓解交通拥堵、促进公交优先的讨论,有必要深入剖析居民出行结构演变特征,以客观评估城市轨道交通的作用。基于2010年、2016年2次居民出行大调查数据,从宏观、微观2个层面分析居民出行结构的演变特征;利用两步聚类法按交通小区进行评估,将全市划分为城市轨道交通优势发展区、道路公交优势发展区、私人小汽车优势发展区、交通平衡发展区等4类交通发展分区;从划定交通发展分区、制定公交发展目标、构建公交体系、确定公交发展路径等方面提出了深圳市未来公交发展的政策建议。

Compared to 2010,Shenzhen public transport sharing rate in 2016 doesn′t show significant increase,which leads to the discussion of whether urban rail transit is practically relieving congestion and promoting public transport priority.It is necessary to analyze the evolution of residents′travel structure and to evaluate the role of urban rail transit.Based on the data of two household travel surveys in 2010 and 2016,the evolution of residents′travel structure is analyzed in both macro and micro levels.Two-step clustering method is used to evaluate transport development and divide the city into 4 traffic development zone,urban rail transit advantage development zone,bus advantage development zone,car advantage development zone,and transport balance development zone.Recommendations for the development of Shenzhen public transport are proposed from the perspective of transport policy zoning,public transport development goals,construction of public transport system and development path.