摘要
Introduction:Pastoral communities have a comprehensive knowledge of their environments.This knowledge was acquired through extensive observation of the local environment and continuous herding practices.Pastoralists’wisdom about their local environment and adaptation strategies to climate change is essential for sustainable development.Thus,appreciation of pastoralists’knowledge about their environment is also important for the integration of indigenous knowledge with the proper application of scientific approach to fit with the prevailing ecological potential of pastoral areas.Methods:Data were collected using focus group discussions,key informant interviews,and in-depth interviews.The in-depth interviews were conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire that was administered to 100 household heads with the age of above 50 years old.Respondents were randomly drawn from selected Pastoralists Associations(PAs)of two study districts.Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics as well as the logit model.The logit model was used to analyze the different coping strategies of pastoralists to overcome the failure of rain during different seasons.This was done by complementing pastoralists’indigenous knowledge of time-series-based analysis across four seasons(Kerma,Gillal,Hagay,and Sugum)vs.the existing meteorological records.Forty years(from 1971 to 2011)of existing metrological data were used to compare the empirical evidence with pastoralists’perceptions.Results:Respondents mentioned that livestock number was the best indicator for evaluating rangeland condition in Afar region.The existing empirical evidence based on metrological data did not show any significant decline in precipitation for the last four decades between 1971 and 2011 as opposed to the perception of pastoralists where 80%of them reported a decline in precipitation.A one unit increase in labor force suggested about 16.1%decrease in the choice of livestock selling as coping strategy in Afar pastoral areas of North-East of Ethiopia.The non-intervened pastoral households had more preference(3.78%)to practice herd splitting than those pastoral households in the intervened district.Similarly,the non-intervened pastoral households had 4.43%more preference to use crop residue for livestock feeding than pastoral HHs in the intervened areas.Conclusions:Communities’perceptions showed that livestock number was the best indicator of rangeland condition in the study area.Afar pastoralists’observations with regard to temperature and precipitation trends over the last four decades greatly corresponded with the existing metrological-based empirical evidence.However,pastoralists’perception in terms of reduced precipitation was not confirmed by the meteorological-based data records for the short rainy season(SRS).Afar pastoralists’experience showed that the short rainy season was the best indicator for the occurrence of droughts as compared to other seasons in Afar.Our results suggest that most coping strategies are labor force demanding,and the situation worsens during the long rainy season(LRS).We suggest that differences in intervention between the study areas should not be overlooked as a policy tool in tackling the impact of climate change.
