松涛水库入库洪水预报流溪河模型研究

Study of Inflow Flood Forecasting of Songtao Reservoir Using Liuxihe Model

为准确、可靠地预报松涛水库入库洪水,基于流域降雨量和下垫面物理特性,探讨了分布式水文模型流溪河模型在松涛水库入库洪水预报中的适用性。结果表明,流溪河模型在松涛水库流域对场次洪水有较好的模拟效果,34场洪水模拟的确定性系数均值达0.869,洪峰误差均值为0.1。以洪峰流量的20%作为许可误差,松涛水库预报方案合格率为79%,预报方案精度达到乙级,说明该模型可应用于松涛水库入库洪水预报。研究成果可为松涛水库防洪调度提供技术支持。

In order to forecast inflow flood in Songtao reservoir accurately,based on rainfall data and terrain property data,the applicability of inflow flood forecasting was explored using the Liuxihe Model.The main conclusions are as follows.The Liuxi river model has a good effect on flood simulation of 34 events in Songtao reservoir basin,in which the average deterministic coefficient reaches 0.869 and the mean error of the peak flood is 0.1.Taking 20%of the peak flow as allowance error,the pass rate of the forecast scheme of Songtao Reservoir is 79%,reaching level B of forecast scheme’precision.Therefore,the Liuxi river model can be used to predict the inflow flood in Songtao reservoir.The study provides technical support for flood control operation of Songtao Reservoir.