神农架地区大型水库库湾夏季藻类-营养非线性动力学分析

Analysis of A Phytoplankton-Nutrient Non-Linear Dynamic System During Summer in Large Reservoir Bay of Shennongjia Area

对大神农架地区大型水库库湾-三峡水库香溪河库湾夏季水华期间藻类的营养吸收生长构建了非线性动力学模型。模型反映了时间变化的整体趋势并可模拟藻类生物量峰值。通过改变初始磷浓度,系统均可达到两种藻消亡的平衡态,且模型可在一定程度上预测不同营养水平水体中水华暴发的可能性和强度。展示了动力学系统内部的变化可在一定范围内反映真实世界,通过系统内参数的调节,系统可达到或远离平衡态,以朝生态环境友好的方向发展。

A phytoplankton-nutrient non-linear dynamic model was constructed for the summer bloom in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir in Shennongjia area. A general trend of temporal dynamics was reproduced and the pink value of algal biomass was simulated. Several equilibrium conditions with extinction of two kinds of algae were reached by adjusting initial phosphorus concentration. The model can predict the probability and intensity of algal bloom in the water bodies with different trophic levels to some extent. The present study also showed the reflection of variations inside the dynamic system to the real world within limit. Through the management of system parameters, the equilibrium state can be achieved or removed towards the direction that is beneficial to eco-environment.