政府干预下重大传染疾病扩散仿真研究

Under government intervention,simulation research of spread of major infectious disease

目的:探求在政府干预下重大传染疾病的传播机制。方法:通过使用系统仿真动力学,模拟在不同防控力度下病毒传播路径及扩散程度,具体分析政府防控与个人流动对于疾病传播的影响。结果:从政府防控角度看,如果仅仅采取防控措施具有一定的延迟效果,在初期的效果并不明显;从个人流动角度看,能够在短时间内起到良好的效果;如果同时采取两种防控措施,传染疾病能够很快得到遏制。结论:政府防控力度与人员流动作为突发公共卫生事件扩散演变的脆弱性参数,应提高重视程度,保障人民生命财产安全。

Objective:To explore the transmission mechanism of major infectious diseases under government intervention.Methods:Through the use of system simulation dynamics,the virus transmission path and degree of spread under different prevention and control efforts were simulated,and the impact of government prevention and control and personal mobility on disease transmission was analyzed.Results:From the perspective of government efforts,if only take prevention and control measures has a certain delay effect,the effect is not obvious at the initial stage.From the perspective of personal mobility,it can play agood effect in a short time.If two prevention and control measures are taken at the same time,infectious diseases can be quickly contained.Conclusion:The government's prevention and control efforts and personnel flow,as the vulnerability parameters of public health emergency diffusion evolution,should be paid more attention to ensure the safety of people's lives and property.