基于模型校核的输电线路载流量限额动态评估

Dynamic Evaluation of Ampacity Limit for Transmission Line Based on Model Calibration

急剧增长的用电需求和高比例可再生能源发电并网给现有输电系统带来了较大压力。动态增容技术是提升线路输送能力的经济有效的手段,但受数据采集精度、计算模型参数时变特征等影响,现有动态增容系统在实际应用中仍存在计算精度不足、可靠性偏低等问题。为降低数据采集质量和载流量模型精度对动态增容技术可靠性的影响,提出并构建了一种基于实时闭环校核的载流量及弧垂计算模型修正方法。结合数值天气预报,进一步提出了一种输电线路载流量限额动态评估方案,在动态校核载流量和弧垂计算模型的基础上,实现对实时和预测载流量限额的滚动修正。最后,通过实际工程案例验证了模型校核方法和载流量限额动态评估方案的正确性和可行性。

Rapidly increasing electricity demand and access of high-penetration renewable energy generation have put great pressure on the existing transmission system. Dynamic line rating technology is an economic and effective way to improve transmission capacity of transmission lines. However, affected by accuracy of data acquisition, time-varying characteristics of calculation model parameters, etc., existing dynamic line rating systems still have some problems in practical applications, such as insufficient calculation accuracy and low reliability. To reduce the influence of data acquisition quality and ampacity model accuracy on the reliability of dynamic line rating technology, a correction method of ampacity and sag calculation model based on real-time closedloop calibration is proposed and constructed. Furthermore, combined with the numerical weather forecasting, a dynamic evaluation scheme of transmission line ampacity limit is proposed. Based on the dynamic calibration of the ampacity and sag calculation model, the rolling correction of the real-time and predicted ampacity limit is realized. Finally, the correctness and feasibility of the model calibration method and the dynamic evaluation scheme of the ampacity limit are verified through an actual engineering case.