高质量经济活动选择基准——来自中国细分行业的比较研究

High-quality Economic Activity Selection Benchmark—Comparative Research on China’s Sub-industries

本文基于技术创新窗口、规模报酬特征、产品附加值和产业链构建高质量经济活动的选择标准和测度方法。利用《中国统计年鉴》《中国科技统计年鉴》、经济合作与发展组织的STAN数据库、联合国贸易发展数据库和中国各省份投入产出表的数据,本文测度1995—2014年中国30个省份18个细分行业的高质量发展情况。研究发现:有潜力作为主导产业引领高质量增长的行业依次是:化学品和非金属制造业、金属制品业、消费性服务业、商业服务业和交通仓储业。从行业分布上看,5个行业中有两个制造业、三个服务业。这说明,未来中国高质量经济活动的选择应当集中在高端制造业和先进服务业。此外,高质量经济活动主要集中在广东、江苏、上海、浙江和山东等东部沿海省份。这意味着,高质量经济活动主导产业的选择是典型的非均衡发展策略。应当利用东部地区的先发优势,快速建立基于主导行业的产业体系,构筑产业集群,再通过溢出效应和示范效应带动中西部地区发展。

Based on the technological innovation window,scale reward characteristics,the product added value and the industrial chain,this paper constructs the selection standards and measurement methods of high-quality economic activities.Then,this paper uses data of China Statistical Yearbook,China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology,the OECD STAN database,the UN Comtrade database and the input-output table of China s provinces,to measure high-quality development of 18 sub-industries in 30 provinces of China from 1995 to 2014.It is found that there are five prominent industries that have the potential to lead high-quality growth,namely,the chemical and non-metallic manufacturing,the metal products,the consumer services,the commercial services,and the transportation and warehousing service industry.In terms of industry distribution among them,there are mainly two manufacturing industries and three service industries,showing that the choice of high-quality economic activities in the future should focus on high-end manufacturing and advanced services.Besides,high-quality economic activities are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region of Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Shandong,which means that the choice of leading industries of high-quality economic activities is a typical unbalanced development strategy.Thus,taking the starting advantage of the eastern region,the industrial system based on the leading industry should be established quickly,and the industrial cluster should be constructed,and then the development of the central and western regions should be driven by the spillover effect and demonstration effect.