南非旅游相关产业与经济发展的关系研究

Tourism Related Industries and Economic Development in South Africa

旅游业与经济发展的关系研究对制定旅游发展政策具有重要参考价值。根据南非旅游相关产业2005—2017年的年度数据,采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型和Toda-Yamamoto因果检验方法,实证研究了南非经济发展与6个旅游相关产业之间的互动关系。结果表明:除了餐饮业,其余5个旅游相关产业与经济发展之间不存在长期协整关系,GDP与6个旅游相关产业之间存在错综复杂的Granger因果关系,由此支持旅游与经济互惠增长假说。南非应当落实国家经济发展战略规划,为旅游业发展创造良好的环境,同时制定旅游相关产业投资激励政策,促进南非旅游业全面振兴。

The relationship between tourism and economic development has always been the main object of research in academic circle.By using the data of GDP and tourism from 2005 to 2017,we construct the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model,and Toda-Yamamoto(TY)test,in order to investigate the relationship between economic growth and six tourism-related sub-industries in South Africa.The results show that except for the food and beverage sectors,no long-run relationship exists between other tourism sub-industries and economic growth.Granger causality is also uncovered from economic growth to each of the sub-industries.Based on the analysis,there exists a bi-directional feedback relationship between tourism and economic growth in South Africa.South Africa should implement national economic development strategies to create a favorable environment for the development of tourism,and formulate incentive policies for tourism-related industries to promote the comprehensive revitalization of national economic development.