三孩政策下城镇职工基本养老保险最优替代率研究

Research on the Optimal Replacement Rate of Urban Employees’Basic Pension Insurance under the“Three Child”Policy

养老基金替代率通常被认为是衡量养老基金充足性的指标之一。本文采用OLG模型研究了三孩政策下我国城镇职工基本养老保险最优替代率。通过对三孩政策下人口变动进行预测,对人口增长率这一关键参数进行估值,考察三孩政策下,由人口增长率变动引起的养老基金最优替代率的变动趋势。通过对三孩不同生育意愿的模拟,研究发现:三孩政策无法扭转人口增长率下降的整体趋势,伴随着人口增长率的不断下降,将迎来最优养老基金替代率的逐步下降,但三孩对最优养老基金替代率的下降起到了一定的缓解作用,且缓解作用大小与生育意愿正相关。

The replacement rate of pension funds is usually regarded as one of the indicators to mea⁃sure the adequacy of pension funds.This article uses the OLG model to study the optimal replacement rate of basic pension insurance for urban employees in China under the“Three-Child”policy.By predicting the pop⁃ulation change under the“Three-Child”policy,and evaluating the key parameter of population growth rate,then examines the trend of the optimal replacement rate of pension funds caused by the change in population growth rate under the“Three-Child”policy.Through the simulation of the different fertility wishes of the sec⁃ond child,the study found that a“Three-Child”policy cannot reverse the overall trend of the decline in popu⁃lation growth rate.With the continuous decline in population growth rate,the optimal pension fund replace⁃ment rate also gradually declines,but the“Three-Child”has a certain relief effect on the decline of the opti⁃mal pension fund replacement rate,and the relief effect is positively correlated with fertility intention.