农村人口结构与金融资源配置的时空耦合水平测度及影响因素研究

A Study on the Measurement of Spatio-temporal Coupling Level between Rural Population Structure and Financial Resource Allocation and the Influencing Factors

农村人口和金融资源是农村经济发展的重要核心要素,在当前全面推进乡村振兴、加快农业农村现代化的关键时期,加强农村人口结构和金融资源配置相互关系的研究成为助推农村经济发展的内在要求。本文通过构建人口结构与金融资源配置系统的综合评价指标体系,从时间和空间的视角分析了全国30个省级行政区2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年农村地区的人口结构与金融资源配置的耦合协调关系,并采用空间杜宾模型与普通最小二乘(OLS)回归模型检验了两者耦合协调度的影响因素。得出以下结论:一是农村金融资源配置水平与农村人口结构水平相关性较强,两者均持续提升且省际间差异不断扩大,其中农村金融资源向城市群倾向配置的趋势明显。二是农村人口结构与金融资源配置逐渐向高水平耦合阶段迈进,呈现"北高南低"的空间格局;但两者耦合协调度仍处于互为制约的失调衰退发展阶段,呈现由京沪"极化效应"逐渐转向"扩散效应"发展的空间格局。三是耦合协调度存在正向空间溢出效应,经济发展水平和医疗卫生条件是耦合协调度的重要驱动力。本文基于上述结论,就如何促进农村人口结构和金融资源配置的协调发展提出建议。

Rural population and financial resources are important core elements of rural economic development.In the current critical period of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization,strengthening the study of the interrelationship between rural population structure and financial resource allocation has become an inherent requirement for boosting rural economic development.By constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of demographic structure and financial resource allocation system,this paper analyzes the coupled coordination relationship between demographic structure and financial resource allocation in rural areas of 30 provincial administrative regions in China in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 from the perspective of time and space,and the spatial Durbin model and the ordinary least squares(OLS)regression model are also used to examine the factors influencing the degree of coupling coordination between the two.The following conclusions are drawn:First,the level of rural financial resources allocation is strongly correlated with the level of rural population structure,both of which continue to increase and the inter-provincial differences are expanding,with a clear trend of rural financial resources being allocated to urban agglomeration.Second,the rural population structure and financial resource allocation are gradually moving toward a high level of coupling,showing a spatial pattern of‘high in the north and low in the south’;however,the coupling and coordination degree is still in the stage of mutually constrained dysfunctional recession development,showing a spatial pattern of‘polarization effect’gradually shifting from Beijing and Shanghai to‘diffusion effect’development.Third,there is a positive spatial spillover effect of the coupling coordination degree,and the level of economic development and medical and health conditions are the important driving force of the coupling coordination degree.Based on the above findings,this paper makes suggestions on how to promote the coordinated development of rural population structure and financial resource allocation.