全球气候模式对影响西北太平洋台风强度的大尺度环境因子的模拟评估

Assessment of Large-scale Environmental Factors Affecting Typhoon Intensity in Northwest Pacific Simulated by Global Climate Models

基于NOAA和NCEP再分析资料以及CMIP5(coupled model intercomparison project phase5)模式历史试验输出结果,首先评估模式对控制台风强度的大尺度环境因子空间分布的模拟能力,然后在台风主要发展区域,评估模式对环境因子的空间分布和时间变化特征的模拟能力。结果表明:CESM1-BGC,CESM1-CAM5和CNRM-CM5能模拟出观测的海表面温度气候分布和上升特征;CCSM4,CESM1-BGC和CESM1-CAM5能模拟出观测的混合层厚度气候分布和增厚特征;ACCESS1-0,ACCESS1-3,CanESM2和GFDL-ESM2M能模拟出观测流出层温度气候分布和下降特征,但模拟的下降率小。ACCESS1-0,CESM1-CAM5,CNRM-CM5,MPI-ESM-MR和GFDL-ESM2G能模拟出观测垂直风切变的气候分布和趋势特征。综合评估表明CESM1-BGC和CESM1-CAM5可用来研究西北太平洋台风强度的气候变化问题。

Based on NOAA and NCEP reanalysis data and historical running output results from coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models(CMIP5),the capability of those models in simulating the climatic field of the large-scale environmental factors controlling typhoon intensity was evaluated firstly.Then,the capability of CMIP5 models in simulating the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the environmental factors was evaluated over the major regions of typhoon development.The results show that there were great differences in the climatic field and spatiotemporal changes of the large-scale environmental factors in CMIP5 models.CESM1-BGC,CESM1-CAM5 and CNRM-CM5 could well simulate the climate distribution and increasing characteristics of the observed sea surface temperature.CCSM4,CESM1-BGC and CESM1-CAM5 could well simulate the climate distribution and thickening characteristics of the observed ocean mixed layer thickness.ACCESS1-0,ACCESS1-3,CANESM2 and GFDL-ESM2M could well simulate the climate distribution and decreasing characteristics of the observed outflow layer temperature,but the simulated decreasing amplitude was small.Access1-0,CESM1-CAM5,CNRM-CM5,MPA-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M could well simulate the climate distribution and trend characteristics of the observed vertical wind shear.The comprehensive evaluation showed that CESM1-BGC and CESM1-CAM5 could be used to study the climate change of typhoon intensity in the northwest Pacific ocean.