农村用电碳排放变化驱动因素研究

A Driving Factors Analysis of the Carbon Emission Change of Rural Electricity Consumption

随着农村经济的不断发展,农村能源消费正逐步由生物质能源向电力转变。因此,从农村视角识别影响农村用电碳排放的潜在驱动因素,是我国推进农村低碳发展、实现碳减排目标的重要前提。本文采用基于人口、富裕度和技术的随机影响回归模型(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology,STIRPAT),结合岭回归,分析2005~2018年广东省农村用电碳排放的影响因素。结果表明,城市化水平、农业经济发展水平、有效灌溉面积、农业机械化水平、农业固定资产投资、收入水平以及住房条件等因素都与广东省农村用电产生的碳排放呈正相关。其中,农村居民人均可支配收入是影响广东省农村用电碳排放的最关键因素。此外,农业经济发展与广东省农村用电碳排放也呈弱脱钩关系。最后,针对如何减少广东省农村用电碳排放提出政策建议。

With the continuous development of rural economy,rural energy consumption is gradually changing from biomass energy to electricity.Therefore,identifying the potential driving factors of rural electricity carbon emissions from the perspective of rural areas is an important prerequisite for promoting rural low-carbon development and achieving carbon emission reduction goals.In this study,Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STIRPAT)model and ridge regression are used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions from rural electricity consumption in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2018.The results show that urbanization level,agricultural economic development level,effective irrigation area,agricultural mechanization level,agricultural fixed assets investment,income level and housing conditions are positively correlated with carbon emissions from rural power consumption.Among them,the per capita disposable income of rural residents is the most important factor affecting the carbon emission of rural electricity.In addition,there is a weak decoupling relationship between agricultural economic development and rural electricity carbon emissions.Finally,policy suggestions are put forward on how to reduce rural electricity carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.