农民非农就业与农民家庭旅游消费支出——基于中国家庭追踪调查2012—2014数据的实证分析

Peasants’Non-farm Employment and Family Tourism Expenditure:An Empirical Analysis Based on the CFPS 2012—2014

在经济不景气的情况下,如何促进国内旅游消费以推动旅游业复苏是一个亟须考虑的问题。文章利用中国家庭追踪调查2012—2014(CFPS 2012—2014)数据,研究了农村家庭非农就业对家庭旅游消费支出的影响。文章首先通过T检验确认了农村非农就业家庭与务农家庭在旅游消费支出上的显著差异,随后通过PSM方法检验了非农就业对旅游消费支出的“净影响”,最后利用回归模型检验了非农就业影响旅游消费支出的机制和非农就业影响旅游消费的异质性。文章得出了4个有意义的结论:(1)农民非农就业显著提高了家庭旅游消费支出;(2)非农就业影响家庭旅游消费支出的机制来源于非农就业产生的收入效应、示范效应和预期效应;(3)三类效应中,预期效应最强,示范效应其次,收入效应最弱;(4)非农就业的影响存在差异,私营企业(个体工商/自雇)与受雇旅游支出具有显著影响,而农业打工和非农散工则影响不显著。文章最后根据这些结论给出相应的政策建议。

How to enhance domestic tourism consumption in order to promote the recovery of tourism industry is an urgent issue under the circumstances of economic depression.Based on the Chinese Family Panel Data from 2012 to 2014(CFPS 2012—2014),this paper studied the impact of rural household off-farm employment on household tourism expenditure,did a T-test to confirm the significant difference on tourism expenditure between the family with rural non-agricultural employment and farming family,applied PSM method to test the employment“net effect”of tourism expenditure,and used regression models to examine the mechanism of employment impact on tourism expenditure and tourism expenditure heterogeneity of off-farm employment.The four significant conclusions are:(1)Peasants’non-farm employment significantly increases family tourism expenditure;(2)the mechanism of off-farm employment influencing family tourism expenditure comes from the income effect,demonstration effect and expectation effect generated by non-farm employment;(3)among the three kinds of effects,the expected effect is the strongest,the demonstration effect is the moderate one,and the income effect is the weakest;(4)the impact of off-farm employment is different,with private enterprises(self-business/self-employed)and employed tourism spending having a significant impact,while agricultural employees and off-farm casual employees have no significant impact.It ended with some policy suggestions based on these conclusions.