信贷支持、农村三产融合与农民收入增长——基于湖南省县域面板数据的门槛模型分析

Credit Support, the Integration of the Three Industries in Rural Areas and the Income Growth of Farmers: Threshold Model Analysis Based on County Panel Data in Hunan Province

采用2013—2018年湖南省79个县域的面板数据,考察了信贷支持、农村三产融合与农民收入三者之间的关系,并以农村三产融合指数为门槛变量,检验了信贷规模对农民收入支持的门槛效应。研究结果显示:信贷支持和农村三产融合均能显著地促进农民收入增长;信贷支持对农民收入增长的促进作用受限于农村三产融合,且存在"双门槛效应",当农村三产融合度跨越第二个门槛值(0.240),信贷支持对农民收入水平的提高具有最显著的带动作用。由此提出应大力发展农村金融,加大信贷投入,推动农村三产融合发展。

This paper uses the panel data of 79 counties in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2018 to investigate the relationships among credit support, the integration of the three industries in rural areas and the income of farmers. The integration index of the three industries in rural areas is taken as the threshold variable to test the threshold effect of credit scale on the income support of farmers. The results show that credit support and the integration of the three industries in rural areas can significantly promote the growth of farmers’ income;the promotion effect of credit support on farmers’ income growth is limited by the integration of the three industries, and there is a "double threshold effect". When the integration degree of the three industries crosses the second threshold value(0.240), credit support has the most significant driving effect on the improvement of farmers’ income level. Therefore, we should vigorously develop rural finance, increase credit input, and promote the integration of the three industries in rural areas.