内需面对“边际消费倾向递减”失去拉动空间了吗?——基于云南城乡状态空间模型的验证

Has Domestic Demand Lost the Room to Be Further Pulled Up Facing “Decreasing Marginal Propensity to Consume”?Based on the Verification of the Urban-Rural State Space Model in Yunnan Province

拉动内需是国内大循环的核心要点,但凯恩斯的边际消费倾向递减假说似乎为内需的拉动蒙上了一层阴影。对此,利用云南省分城乡1985—2018年的时间序列数据构建了状态空间模型并进行了验证,得出不同的看法。研究表明:边际消费倾向递减假说在云南城乡中并未得到有力的证据支撑,内需的拉动仍然具备较大的发力空间。尽管云南城乡边际消费倾向存在较大的差距,但并非是几十年来始终存在的,其表现形式为先缩小后扩大。此外,"消费惯性"在城乡中均能得到体现,并且乡村要小于城镇。此结论意味着,应当进一步有效引导消费者需求,促进城乡居民边际消费倾向的趋同,同时培育良好的消费增长新热点。

Stimulating domestic demand is the core point of the "domestic economic cycle", but the "hypothesis of diminishing marginal propensity to consume" proposed by Keynes seems to cast a pessimistic shadow on the stimulus of domestic demand. In this regard, this paper uses the time series data from 1985 to 2018 in Yunnan Province to construct a state space model for verification and draws different opinions. Studies show that the hypothesis of "decreasing marginal propensity to consume" has not been supported by strong evidence in the urban and rural areas of Yunnan, and the domestic demand still has a large room for growth. Although there is a large gap in the marginal propensity of consumption between urban and rural areas in Yunnan, it has not always existed for decades. Its manifestation is that it first shrinks and then expands. Besides, "consumption inertia" can be reflected in both urban and rural areas, and the inertia is smaller in rural areas than in urban areas. The conclusions indicates that the government should further effectively guide consumer demand, promote the convergence of urban-rural residents’ marginal consumption propensity, and at the same time cultivate good new hot spots for consumption growth.