关税对中美双边水产品出口三元边际的影响分析

Analysis of Impacts of Tariffs on the Three Margins of Sino-US Bilateral Aquatic Product Exports

【目的】在中美贸易摩擦的背景下,分析关税对中美双边水产品出口增长的三元边际的影响,并提出保持中美双边水产品出口增长的政策建议。【方法】利用三元边际分析模型、VAR模型探究中美双边水产品出口增长的内在机制,并对影响中美双边水产品出口增长的主要因素进行分析。【结果】从整体来看,在中国对美国的水产品出口中,数量边际贡献了83.98%,价格边际次之为、41.34%,扩展边际产生了负贡献为、-25.32%;在美国对中国的水产品出口中,数量边际贡献最大、为74.73%,价格边际次之、为13.25%,扩展边际最低、为12.01%。从关税的影响来看,在中国对美国的水产品出口中,关税对扩展边际的影响最大、为8.89%,数量边际和价格边际较小、为1.35%和0.06%;在美国对中国的水产品出口中,关税对价格边际的影响最大、为23.26%,扩展边际次之、为11.07%,数量边际最低为、8.51%。【结论】提高自身的核心竞争力,培育新品种,打造国际化品牌,积极开拓市场实现多元化,积极创造有利的贸易条件。

【Objective】Under the background of Sino-US trade friction,this paper analyzes the impacts of tariffs on the three margins of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export growth,and puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain the growth of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export.【Method】The ternary marginal analysis model and VAR model were used to explore the internal mechanism of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export growth,and the main factors affecting the growth of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export were analyzed.【Result】On the whole,in China's aquatic product exports to the United States,the quantity margin brought a contribution of 83.98%,the price margin of 41.34%,while the expansion margin produced a negative contribution of-25.32%.In the export of aquatic products from the United States to China,the quantity margin produced a contribution of 74.73%,the price margin of 13.25%,and the expansion margin of 12.01%.From the perspective of the impact of tariff,in China's aquatic product exports to the United States,the maximum impact of tariff on the expansion margin was 8.89%,the quantity margin and price margin were 1.35%and 0.06%,respectively.In the aquatic products exported from the United States to China,the impact of tariff on price margin was 23.26%,expansion margin was 11.07%,and quantity margin was 8.51%.【Conclusion】It is suggested to improve the core competitiveness of products,cultivate new varieties,build international brands,actively explore the market to achieve diversification,and actively create favorable trade conditions.