广西地区新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行病学参数估计

Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of Novel Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19)in Guangxi

目的基于广西地区的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)数据,对COVID-19的相关流行病学参数,如世代间隔、基本再生数R0,进行估计。方法采用三种概率密度分布模型(Gamma分布、Weibull分布、Lognormal分布)来拟合世代间隔的概率分布,采用Akaike信息准则(AIC)衡量统计模型拟合优良性。结果广西地区的COVID-19疫情发展遵循Logistic指数增长模型。世代间隔平均值为7.00 d(95%CI:6.56~9.64),利用指数增长法估计得基本再生数R0为1.51(95%CI:1.49~1.53)。结论世代间隔更符合Gamma分布;R0>1。此次COVID-19疫情在防控部门的迅速响应、强力且高效执行下,疫情形势大有减缓。

Objective To estimate the related epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19)based on COVID-19 data in GuangXi,such as serial interval and basic reproduction number R0.Methods Three kinds of probability density distribution models(Gamma,Weibull and Lognormal distributions)were used to fit the probability distribution of serial interval.The Akaike information criterion(AIC)was used to evaluate the goodness of the statistical model.Results The epidemic situation in Guangxi followed the logistic exponential growth model.The average serial interval was 7.00 days(95%CI:6.56-9.64).The basic reproduction number R0 was estimated to be 1.51(95%CI:1.49-1.53)by using the exponential growth method.Conclusion The serial interval is more consistent with gamma distribution with R0>1.Under the rapid response and strong and efficient implementation of the prevention and control department,the epidemic situation has greatly slowed down.