摘要
为提高汽车销量的预测精度,从而为企业估算销售收入、制定生产计划和进行发展战略决策提供有效支撑,提出了一种考虑评论感知情感和宏观经济指标的汽车销量预测方法。首先通过构建领域专有情感词典,对口碑评论进行情感分数提取,其后基于前景理论和归因理论对评论情感的影响机理进行研究,获得评论感知情感指数,最后结合经济指标和历史销量,通过线性回归模型对真实汽车车型销量进行预测。结果表明:与仅使用历史销量数据相比,模型中加入评论感知情感和宏观经济指标有效提升了销量预测精度。
In order to provide effective support for enterprises to estimate sales revenue,formulate production plans and make development strategy decisions,a method considering the perception of comments and macroeconomic indicators was proposed to improve the accuracy of automobile sales forecast.A domain-specific dictionary was firstly constructed to quantify the sentiment intensity of reviews.Subsequently,the sentiment intensity was adjusted to the index of perceive emotion of reviews with the prospect theory and the attribution theory applied.Finally,combined with national macroeconomic indicators and historical sales,a linear regression model was built to forecast the real automobile sales.The results show that compared with only using historical sales,the method adding the index of perceive emotion of reviews and the macroeconomic indicators to model can effectively improve the accuracy of forecast.
作者
蒋楷丞
李艳婷
JIANG Kai-cheng;LI Yan-ting(Chinese Institute for Quality Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2021年第14期5847-5854,共8页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(71672109)。
关键词
网上评论
情感词典
前景理论
归因理论
销量预测
online reviews
sentiment dictionary
attribution theory
prospect theory
sales forecast
