基于负荷预测的区域供暖系统控制模型研究

Study on Control Model of District Heating System based on Load Forecasting

针对当前我国北方城镇供暖季过量供热的突出问题,基于MATLAB/Simulink软件建立区域供暖系统仿真模型用于研究其动态特性。为抵消供暖过程中的滞后与延迟,引入短期负荷预测方式指导系统进行集中调节,观察建筑室内温度的动态响应与运行能耗情况,并与定供水温度和室外温度补偿方法作对比,结果表明基于负荷预测的区域供暖系统集中调节方式可将室内温度波动缩小到20±1℃范围内,且相较于常规调节方式整个供暖季的节能率可达14.54%。

In view of the prominent problem of excessive heating during the heating season in northern cities and towns in China,a district heating system simulation model is established based on MATLAB/Simulink software for studying its dynamic characteristics.In order to offset the lag and delay in the heating process,the short-term load forecasting method is introduced to guide the system to perform centralized adjustment,at the same time the dynamic response of the indoor temperature and the operating energy consumption are observed.Then compared with the constant water supply temperature regulation and the conventional adjustment method.The results show that heating operation regulation method based on load prediction can reduce the indoor temperature fluctuation to a range of 20±1℃.Compared with the conventional adjustment method,the energy saving rate of the entire heating season can reach 14.54%.