城市经济高质量发展俱乐部趋同空间格局及其演变

Spatial Pattern and Evolution of Convergence of Urban Economic High Quality Development Clubs

以中国284个城市为研究对象,从经济持续增长、经济结构完善、经济绿色发展、经济成果共享等项构建高质量发展指标体系,并计算马尔科夫转移概率矩阵及空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵分析城市经济高质量发展俱乐部趋同空间格局及其演变。从全国来看,城市经济高质量发展指数是上升的,存在低水平、中低水平、中等水平、中高水平、高水平等五类经济高质量发展趋同俱乐部。与低水平邻居相邻时,低水平城市有较大概率维持自身水平不变,其他类型城市有较大概率向下转移;与高水平邻居相邻时,高水平城市稳定于自身的概率较大,其余城市向上转移的概率远大于向下转移或稳定于自身水平的概率,甚至出现跨水平转移。

Taking 284 cities in China as the research objects, this paper constructs the index system of urban economic high-quality development from four dimensions of sustained economic growth, sound economic structure, green economic development and sharing of economic achievements, and measures the level of economic high-quality development. After obtaining the high-quality index of each city’ s economy, the Markov transition probability matrix and spatial Markov transition probability matrix are calculated to deeply understand the spatial pattern and evolution of the convergence of China’s urban economic high-quality development clubs. The main conclusions are :(1) From the national point of view, the high-quality development index of urban economy is rising.(2) There are five types of high-quality economic development convergence clubs : low-level, medium-low, medium-level, medium-high and high-level.(3) When adjacent to low-level neighbors, low-level cities have a greater probability to maintain their own level, while other types of cities have a greater probability to move downward. When adjacent to high-level neighbors, the probability of high-level cities stable in their own level is larger, and the probability of upward transfer of the remaining cities is much larger than that of downward transfer or stable in their own level, and even cross-level transfer occurs. Finally, according to the research in this paper, policy recommendations are put forward, such as vigorously developing the economy, strengthening the economic ties with developed cities, appropriately tilting resources to backward areas, and cultivating new high-quality economic development growth poles.