中国对RCEP农产品出口波动因素研究

Research on the Dynamics of China’s Agricultural Exports to RCEP Countries

出口规模波动既依赖于进口需求的变化,也取决于出口竞争力的大小,同时受到国别结构和产品结构的影响。基于改进的恒定市场份额(CMS)分解模型,研究2010—2018年中国对RCEP国家农产品出口波动的影响因素,结果表明:中国对RCEP国家农产品出口规模波动性增长,进口需求扩大是最主要的驱动因素,整体进口规模扩张和国别需求结构调整的带动作用十分显著,但产品需求结构效应的贡献为负;出口竞争力效应在前期促进了出口增长,但近期表现不佳,整体竞争力以及国别和产业竞争力结构效应均降低了出口规模;供需交互效应缓解了竞争力不足导致的出口下降;各类效应在不同国家和产业部门的表现有明显的差异。因此,中国农产品出口需充分利用RCEP市场需求扩大效应,积极提升出口产品质量和国际竞争力水平,促进出口规模和市场份额稳步增长。

The fluctuation of export scale not only depends on the change of import demand,but also depends on export competitiveness,and is affected by country structure and product structure.By improving the two-level decomposition model of CMS,this paper divides the structure effect of export competitiveness into three parts:country competitiveness structure effect,product competitiveness structure effect and competitiveness structure interaction effect,and analyses the influencing factors of China’s agricultural exports growth to RCEP countries from 2010 to 2018.Results show that:(1)The export scale of China’s agricultural products in RCEP market is growing,mainly concentrated in Japan,Vietnam,South Korea,Thailand,Malaysia,Philippines and other countries,as well as planting and agricultural sidelines.(2)Export growth is mainly due to the expansion of the overall import scale of RCEP,followed by the adjustment of product import structure and the change of country import structure.However,the unstable import scale of RCEP leads to greater volatility of China’s agricultural exports.(3)The export competitiveness of China’s agricultural products has improved,which has played a positive role in promoting export growth.However,in the countries and product markets with large export scale,China’s export competitiveness has decreased significantly,and the interaction effect between countries and product competitiveness structure has mitigated some adverse effects,the export competitiveness of China’s agricultural products has a downward trend.(4)The contribution of the interaction effect between supply and demand is weak.The change of China’s export competitiveness can better adapt to the change of the overall import scale,but cannot coordinate with the change of import structure.This characteristic is obvious in Japan,Vietnam,Australia,Singapore and other markets,as well as in the markets of planting,agricultural sidelines,fishery and other products.(5)Further empirical research shows that China’s export fluctuation is determined by both the pulling effect of import demand and the driving effect of export competitiveness,and from the coefficient point of view,increasing export market share is more conducive to the expansion of export scale;The scale of import demand is positively correlated with the consumption level of RECP countries,but negatively correlated with the supply capacity of domestic primary industry;The level of China’s export competitiveness is negatively correlated with the tariff cost and openness of importing countries,China’s production cost and RMB exchange rate.(6)China’s agricultural products export needs to actively improve the quality of agricultural products and the level of international competitiveness,make full use of the trade creation and transfer effect of RCEP,tap the market potential of agricultural products in the region,and promote the steady growth of export scale and market share.