购房意愿与家庭消费

House-purchase Intension and Household Consumption

目前,居民收入不平衡问题引起了人们的广泛关注,而购房意愿与家庭消费的关系和居民收入不平衡导致的住房攀比有关。基于相对收入假说,利用2010—2018年CFPS数据,从居民收入不平衡视角分析购房意愿与家庭消费的关系。首先,建立面板二值选择模型考察居民收入不平衡对家庭购房意愿的影响,研究发现,由于高收入家庭率先改善住房条件的行为会对低收入家庭产生示范效应,因此家庭购房意愿会因为周围人群住房面积扩大而增强,而家庭平均住房面积增大与居民收入不平衡紧密相关。因此,居民收入不平衡对家庭购房意愿存在显著的正向影响。其次,建立面板固定效应模型实证分析购房意愿增强对家庭消费的影响,回归结果表明,由收入不平衡导致的购房意愿增强会对家庭消费产生显著的抑制作用。为了比较不同收入群体购房意愿对家庭消费的影响,以家庭手存现金的中位数作为分组标志将家庭分为高收入家庭和低收入家庭,分组回归的结果显示,房价上涨背景下购房会强化低收入家庭的流动性约束,与手存现金多的家庭相比,手存现金少的家庭的消费受购房意愿的影响更大,对同期收入也更加敏感。最后,分别从长、短期提出逐步实现居民收入平衡增长和促进居民消费稳定增长的政策建议。

At present,residents’income inequality has attracted extensive attention,and the relationship between house-purchase intention and household consumption is related to housing comparison which is caused by residents’income inequality.Based on the relative income hypothesis,using 2010—2018 CFPS data,the relationship between house-purchase intention and household consumption is analyzed from the perspective of residents’income inequality.Firstly,establishing a binary choice model for panel data to investigate the impact of residents’income inequality on house-purchase intention.It is found that the behavior that high-income families take the lead in improving housing conditions will have a demonstration effect on low-income families and therefore house-purchase intention will be enhanced by the expansion of the housing area of the surrounding population.The increase of the average housing area is closely related to residents’income inequality.Therefore,residents’income inequality has a significant positive impact on house-purchase intention.Secondly,the panel fixed effect model is established to empirically analyze the influence of the enhanced house-purchase intention on household consumption.The regression results show that the increase of house-purchase intention caused by residents’income inequality will have a significant inhibiting effect on household consumption.In order to compare the influence of house-purchase intention on consumption between different income groups,we use the median amount of cash on hand as a marker for grouping households into high-income and lower-income groups,the results of grouping regression show that,purchasing a house in the context of rising house prices will strengthen liquidity constraints of low-income households.Compared with households with more cash on hand,households with less cash on hand are more negatively affected by house-purchase intention and more sensitive to current income.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward that,respectively from long and short term to realize the balanced growth of residents’income and promote the steady growth of residents’consumption.