相关系数R^(2)在杞麓湖富营养化成因中的应用研究

Application of correlation coefficient R^(2) in the causes of eutrophication in Qilu Lake

按照国家监测技术规范对杞麓湖2018年水质富营养化指标开展每月一次的监测,将监测结果统计分析后发现2018年全年杞麓湖综合营养状态指数最低为湖心区的60.9,最高为浅水区的64.5,岸边区为63.0,全湖全年均值为62.8,综合营养状态指数综合评价为中度富营养化。将2018年杞麓湖湖心区、浅水区、岸边区每月平均综合营养状态指数与每月评价指标的平均监测值采用线性回归方法做相关性研究,研究发现,在4个正相关的评价指标中,总氮的相关性(R^(2)=0.904)最高,高锰酸盐指数的相关性(R^(2)=0.369)最低,结合总氮和高锰酸盐指数的物质成分分析表明,杞麓湖富营养化成因是以农业面源污染为主,生活源、工业源、集中式源为辅,阻碍杞麓湖富营养化改善的关键指标是总氮,为首要治理指标。

According to the national monitoring technical specifications,the Qilu Lake s water quality eutrophication indicators in 2018 were monitored once a month.After statistical analysis of the monitoring results,it was found that the comprehensive nutritional status index of Qilu Lake in 2018 was the lowest of 60.9 in the center of the lake,and the highest It is 64.5 in the shallow water area and 63.0 in the shore area.The annual average value of the whole lake is 62.8.The comprehensive nutritional status index is comprehensively evaluated as moderate eutrophication.In 2018,the monthly average comprehensive nutritional status index and the average monitoring value of the monthly evaluation index of the Qilu Lake lake center,shallow water area,and shore area were studied by linear regression method.The study found that there are four positive correlations.Among the evaluation indicators,the correlation of total nitrogen(R^(2)=0.904)is the highest,and the correlation of permanganate index(R^(2)=0.369)is the lowest.Combining the material composition of total nitrogen and permanganate index can indicate the eutrophication of Qilu Lake The chemical cause is based on agricultural non-point source pollution,supplemented by domestic sources,industrial sources,and centralized sources.The key cause index that hinders the improvement of Qilu Lake eutrophication is total nitrogen,which is the primary control indicator.