银行杠杆及其波动风险对经济增长影响的异质性

Heterogeneity Analysis of Bank Leverage And Its Volatility Risk to Economic Growth

基于31个省(市、自治区)2003~2014年面板数据,研究了银行杠杆及其波动风险对经济增长的影响。实证结果表明,总体上银行杠杆对于经济增长的影响以及时变效应不显著,但银行杠杆波动风险对经济增长会产生明显的抑制作用,并存在显著的时变效应,为此,进一步从地域效应及不同经济增速角度研究了银行杠杆及其波动风险对经济增长影响的异质性,研究发现,不同区域和不同增速之间存在异质性。具体而言,银行杠杆在东北地区不能有效促进经济增长,在华北、华东、中南、西南和西北地区可显著促进经济增长,但是在西北地区,该促进作用的可持续性不强,且高的银行杠杆会导致下一期经济增速的下降;银行杠杆波动在中南地区抑制了经济增长,而其他区域影响不显著。在经济增速方面:经济增长中速度的地区银行杠杆可以促进经济增长,而其他地区对经济增速影响不显著;经济增长速度较低地区银行杠杆波动对经济增长影响不显著,而其他地区则表现为明显的抑制作用。因此,各地区在银行杠杆水平选择上可以结合当地的经济发展实施差异化政策,但对银行杠杆波动风险均需加强控制。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2003 to 2014,the influence of bank leverage and its fluctuation risk on economic growth was studied.The empirical results show that,on the whole,the influence of bank leverage on economic growth is not significant,but the risk of bank leverage fluctuation will have a significant restraining effect on economic growth.Therefore,the heterogeneity of bank leverage and its fluctuation risk on economic growth is further studied from the perspective of different regional effect and different economic growth regions.It is found that there is heterogeneity between different regions and different growth rates.Specifically,bank leverage in Northeast China fails to effectively promote economic growth,but in North China,East China,Central China,Southwest China and Northwest China,it can significantly promote economic growth,but in Northwest China,the promoting effect is not sustainable,and high bank leverage will lead to the decline of economic growth in the next period.The fluctuation of bank leverage inhibits economic growth in North China and Central China,but has no significant effect on economic growth in other regions.In terms of economic growth rate:the leverage of regional banks in economic growth rate can promote economic growth,while the influence of other regions is not significant.The bank leverage fluctuation in regions with slow economic growth has no significant influence on economic growth,while in other regions,it has obvious inhibitory effect.Therefore,the choice of bank leverage level in each region can be combined with local economic development to implement differentiated policies,but the risk of bank leverage fluctuation needs to be more controlled.