环境规制、地区间策略互动对生猪生产发展的影响--基于空间计量模型的实证

Environmental regulations,regional strategic interaction and hog production development:an empirical study based on the spatial econometric model

随着生猪生产带来的环境污染问题日益严重,环境规制政策压力逐渐加大。环境规制对生猪生产发展有何影响?地区间环境规制政策执行是否有策略性互动行为?文章利用2007-2017年省级面板数据,采用0-1、地理与经济距离嵌套、出栏量距离三种空间权重矩阵,构建空间杜宾模型和两区制空间自回归模型,检验环境规制对生猪生产布局和规模化养殖的影响,验证地区间环境规制策略的交互性及其对生猪生产的影响。结果表明:①环境规制对本地和全国生猪生产发展具有抑制作用,对出栏量“距离”接近地区生猪出栏量有促进作用,对地理与经济距离相近省份生猪出栏量有抑制作用,限制区省份环境规制抑制生猪产能作用显著。②环境规制促进了生猪养殖规模化,尤其是对发展区生猪规模化生产作用显著。③地理与经济距离相近地区间生猪环境规制政策互动呈现逐顶竞争,生猪出栏量“距离”相近地区间环境规制政策互动既存在逐底竞争,也存在逐顶竞争。④地区间环境规制政策互动“惯性”更倾向于逐底竞争,其他地区整体环境规制强度下降时,本地区环境规制反应程度要强于其他地区环境规制强度整体上升时本地区的环境规制反应程度。⑤环境规制较严格地区对其他地区环境规制整体变化的敏感度更高,环境规制较宽松地区反应相对延迟,限制区和发展区环境规制差异加大,促使养殖主体进行空间转移,推动全国生猪生产布局进一步优化。认为:尽管环境规制会抑制生猪产能,但会倒逼生猪产业布局优化,促进生猪养殖规模化发展,是生猪产业绿色高质量发展必由之路。应加快生猪产业技术进步,统筹各地区生猪产业环境规制政策,防止“各行其是”。实施生猪产业环境规制政策区域差别化机制,防止“一刀切”,因地制宜推进生猪养殖生产适度规模化发展。

As environmental pollution caused by hog production becomes a growing problem,the pressure for environmental regulation policies has become increasingly stronger.What is the impact of environmental regulations on the development of hog production?Is there any strategic interaction in the implementation of regional environmental regulation policies?Based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017,the Spatial Durbin Model and the Two-Regime Spatial Autoregressive Model were constructed by using three spatial weight matrices:0-1 matrix,geographic and economic distance nested matrix and slaughter distance matrix,to test the impact of environmental regulations on hog production layout and large-scale breeding,then to verify the interaction of environmental regulation strategies between regions and its impact on hog production.The results showed that:①Environmental regulation could inhibit the development of local and national hog production,promote the output of live hogs in provinces with close slaughter‘distance’,inhibit the output of live hogs in provinces with close geographical and economic distance,and restrain the production capacity of live hogs in restricted provinces significantly.②Environmental regulation promoted the scale of hog breeding,and especially in development areas.③The interaction of hog environmental regulation policies between regions with similar geographical and economic distance presented a‘race to the top’,and there were both‘race to the bottom’and‘race to the top’between regions with similar‘distance’of hog output.④The‘inertia’of regional environmental regulation policy interaction had a‘race to the bottom’tendency.When the overall environmental regulation intensity in other regions declined,the response degree of environmental regulations in this region was stronger than that when the overall environmental regulation intensity rose.⑤The areas with relatively strict environmental regulations were more sensitive to the overall changes of environmental regulations in other areas,while areas with relatively loose environmental regulations had delayed responses,so the differences in environmental regulations between restricted areas and development areas would increase,promoting the spatial transfer of breeding subjects and further optimizing the layout of hog production in China.This paper holds that although environmental regulations can inhibit hog production capacity,it can also force the optimization of hog industry layout and promote the large-scale development of hog breeding,which is the key to the green and high-quality development of hog industry,Therefore,we should speed up the technological progress of hog industry,coordinate the environmental regulation policies of hog industry in different regions,prevent the practice of‘going their own way’,implement the regional differentiation mechanism of environmental regulation policies of hog industry,prevent the‘one size fits all’phenomenon,and promote the moderate scale development of hog breeding production according to local conditions.