2020年度我国奶业概况及分析

China Dairy Overview and Analysis in 2020

2020年我国牛奶产量为3440万t,同比增长7.5%,2021年随着奶牛存栏的增加及单产水平的提高,生鲜乳产量有望加速增长,同期国际上主要奶业出口国(地区)保持增产势头,供应充足。乳制品消费在消费者健康意识提高、消费主体年轻化及新的消费场景不断涌现等的促进下,有望加速增长。2020年受疫情影响国内消费受到一定程度的抑制,下半年需要消化原料奶粉库存,因此整体进口基本持平,2021年在消费需求增长的带动下有望出现大幅上涨。我国与“一带一路”国家的乳制品贸易具有较大潜力。

In 2020,China's cow milk production is 34.4 million tons,with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%.In 2021,with the increase of dairy cattle inventory and the improvement of yield,the production of raw milk is expected to accelerate.During the same period,major international dairy exporters will maintain the momentum of increasing production and there is sufficient supply.Dairy consumption is expected to accelerate under the promotion of the improvement of consumers'health awareness,the younger consumers and the continuous emergence of new consumption scenarios.In 2020,affected by the epidemic,domestic consumption was restrained to a certain extent.In the second half of the year,milk powder inventory needed to be absorbed,so the overall import was basically flat.In 2021,driven by the growth of consumer demand,it is expected to see a sharp increase.The dairy trade between China and"One Belt And One Road"countries has great potential.