基于水足迹-扩展LMDI模型的河南省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系研究

Decoupling Relationship Between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Development in Henan Province Based on Water Footprint-Extended LMDI Model

针对河南省水资源约束经济发展的相关问题,构建水足迹-扩展LMDI模型,将脱钩驱动因素分解为四大脱钩因子,研究河南省2004—2018年水资源利用与经济发展的脱钩关系。研究结果表明:从总体人均水足迹占有量和自给率上看,河南省整体水资源匮乏情况有所缓解但仍处于紧缺状态;从脱钩状态方面看,河南省整体脱钩状态向好发展,农业用水脱钩状态较稳定,水文年份对农业虚拟用水量及脱钩状态均有影响;在脱钩因素分解方面,技术脱钩因子对河南省脱钩有所贡献,产业结构和规模经济分别为脱钩主要促进和抑制因子,人口驱动因子变化对于河南省脱钩的抑制效应不明显。因此,需要提高河南省水资源利用效率、工业用水重复率,以及促进农业灌溉节水技术的推进。

Aiming at the related problems of water resources constraining economic development in Henan Province,this paper constructs the water footprint-extended LMDI model,decomposes the decoupling driving factors into four decoupling factors,and studies the decoupling relationship between water resources utilization and economic development in Henan Province from 2004 to 2018.The results show that:In terms of the possession and self-sufficiency rate of total per capital water footprint,the overall water shortage in Henan Province has been alleviated,but it is still in a state of shortage;In terms of decoupling state,the overall decoupling of Henan Province is in a good statel,the decoupling state of agricultural water is relatively stable,and the hydrological year has an impact on the agricultural virtual water consumption and decoupling state;In terms of decoupling factor decomposition,the technological decoupling factor contributes to the decoupling in Henan Province,the industrial structure and scale economy are the main promoting and inhibiting factors of decoupling,respectively,and the change of population driving factor has no obvious inhibiting effect on decoupling in Henan Province.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources,the repetition rate of industrial water use,and improve the agricultural irrigation water-saving technology in Henan Province.