地方政府隐性债务影响金融稳定的空间效应与门槛效应研究

Impact of Local Government Implicit Debts on Financial Stability Based on the Spatial Effect and Threshold Effect Analysis of Provincial Government Panel Data

现有关于地方政府债务的经济后果研究主要集中于地方政府债务对经济增长的影响研究。选取金融稳定这一视角,检验地方政府隐性债务对金融稳定的影响,同时考虑空间效应与门槛效应。以2009-2018年30个省份的面板数据为基础,研究发现:金融稳定与地方政府隐性债务均存在显著的正向空间集聚效应,即金融稳定性较好的省份周围的省份金融稳定性也较好,地方政府隐性债务较多的省份也会对周围地区产生溢出效应,考虑到空间效应后地方政府隐性债务与金融稳定之间的非线性关系依然成立,且地方政府隐性债务对金融稳定的影响为倒U型,即地方政府隐性债务对于金融稳定存在"先扬后抑"的作用,单门槛模型的回归结果进一步证明了这一结论。进一步分析表明提升政府支出效率以及减少政府干预度可以有效缓解政府隐性债务对金融稳定的负向影响。

Existing research on the economic consequences of local government implicit debts mainly focuses on the impact of local government implicit debts on economic growth.This paper selects the perspective of financial stability to test the impact of local government implicit debts on financial stability,while considering the spatial effect and threshold effect.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2009 to 2018,the study found that both financial stability and local government implicit debts have a significant positive spatial agglomeration effect,that is,provinces surrounding provinces with better financial stability have better financial stability Provinces with more local government implicit debts will also have spillover effects on surrounding areas.Taking into account the spatial effect,the nonlinear relationship between local government debt and financial stability is still established,and the impact of local government implicit debts on financial stability is inverted U-shaped,That is,local government implicit debts has the effect of "rising first and then suppressing" on financial stability.The regression results of the single threshold model further prove this conclusion.Further analysis shows that improving government expenditure efficiency and reducing government intervention can effectively alleviate the negative impact of government debt on financial stability.