2014-2019年南宁市人源性沙门菌监测数据的S-SSM和D-SSM模型分析

Analysis on surveillance data of human Salmonella using S-SSM and D-SSM in Nanning city, 2014—2019

目的通过分析2014-2019年广西壮族自治区南宁市人源性沙门菌监测数据,了解鼠伤寒沙门菌和肠炎沙门菌的增长趋势,为公共卫生动态监管提供技术参考。方法以南宁市为研究区域,通过建立静态偏离-份额分析法和动态偏离-份额分析法模型,计算得出鼠伤寒沙门菌和肠炎沙门菌的区域增长份额、构成偏离份额和区位偏离份额。结果根据静态偏离-份额分析法模型,南宁市鼠伤寒沙门菌的总偏离量为-9.14株,其增长速度慢于广西壮族自治区沙门菌总体的增长速度;肠炎沙门菌的总偏离量为+6.93株,其增长速度快于广西壮族自治区沙门菌总体的增长速度。根据动态偏离-份额分析法模型,南宁市鼠伤寒沙门菌和肠炎沙门菌各年份的区域增长份额均为正值,均经历先下降最后再上升的过程;在2016年、2017年、 2019年南宁市鼠伤寒沙门菌总偏离量为负值,在2015年、2018年、2019年南宁市肠炎沙门菌总偏离量为正值。结论南宁市肠炎沙门菌具有增长优势,而鼠伤寒沙门菌没有增长优势。

Objective To understand the growth trend of Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis, it analyzed the surveillance data of human Salmonella from 2014 to 2019 in Nanning City of Guangxi so as to provide technical reference for dynamic supervision of public hygiene. Methods The static shift-share analysis method(S-SSM) model and the dynamic shift-share analysis method(D-SSM) model were constructed to analyze the surveillance data in order to obtain the regional growth share, composition deviation share and location deviation share of Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis. Results Based on the results of S-SSM, the overall deviations of Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis were-9.14 strains and +6.93 strains respectively, showing a slower and a faster growth rate compared to the overall growth rate of Salmonella in Guangxi.Based on the results of D-SSM, the regional growth shares of Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis in Nanning were positive values in each temporal period which decreased first and then increased.The total deviations of Salmonella Typhimurium in Nanning were negative in three time intervals of 2016, 2017 and 2019, while the total deviations of Salmonella Enteritidis were positive during the time of 2015, 2018 and 2019. Conclusions Salmonella Enteritidis in Nanning from 2014 to 2019 showed a growth trend but Salmonella Typhimurium did not.