多跑道独立进近中的TCAS告警风险仿真与分析

Simulation and analysis of TCAS warning risk in multi-runway independent approach

为减少民航飞机在多跑道独立进近中产生不必要的TCAS(机载防撞系统)告警,研究了多跑道独立进近中TCAS告警风险仿真计算方法。首先,建立飞机冲突探测模型,模拟独立进近中的飞机位置并探测冲突风险大小,再根据TCAS告警逻辑与流程判定TCAS告警情况;其次,采用蒙特卡洛方法随机生成按正态分布的飞机位置、速度、定位误差等参数,并通过大量计算得出TCAS告警概率及易触发位置;最后,采用控制变量法,对触发TCAS告警的影响因素进行计算分析。研究结果表明,所用模型与计算方法能够有效计算出TCAS告警风险,同时通过对影响因素的相关分析可以提出相应的改进措施。

In order to reduce unnecessary TCAS warnings of civil aviation aircraft in multi-runway independent approach,the simulation calculation method of TCAS warning risk in multi-runway independent approach was studied.Firstly,an aircraft conflict detection model was established to simulate the position of the aircraft during the independent approach and detect the risk of conflict,and the TCAS alarm situation was determined according to the TCAS alarm logic and process.Secondly,the Monte Carlo method was used to randomly generate normally distributed aircraft position,speed,positioning error and other parameters,through a large number of calculations to obtain TCAS alarm probability and easy trigger position.Finally,the control variable method was used to calculate and analyze the influencing factors of triggering TCAS alarm.The research results show that the model and calculation method can effectively calculate the TCAS warning risk,and propose the corresponding improvement measures through relevant analysis of the influencing factors.