城镇化进程中的水资源安全响应研究——以广州市为例

ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES SECURITY RESPONSE IN THE PROCESS OF URBANIZATION:A CASE STUDY IN GUANGZHOU

在"人与自然和谐共生"新时代下,构建"城镇化与水资源安全关系"概念模型,运用响应指数和响应度公式对2007年—2016年广州市城镇化的水资源安全响应关系进行了实证研究,然后进行回归分析得出响应关系演变的主要影响因素。结果发现,广州市城镇化综合指数随着城镇化进程的不断推进呈现上升态势,水资源安全综合指数先在一定时间内上升,到达某个时间点之后逐渐下降;水资源安全响应指数由正数逐渐降低至负数,城镇化进程中的水资源安全响应度由相对稳定转变为急剧提高;水资源安全压力和水资源安全发展是影响广州市城镇化水资源安全响应关系演变的两大主要因素。

The concept model of the relationship between urbanization and water resources security was constructed by the idea of"harmony of man and nature"in the new era.The response of the water resources security in the urbanization of Guangzhou from 2007 to 2016 was empirically studied by using the response index and response degree formula,and then the main influence factors of the evolution of the response relationship were obtained through the regression analysis.The results showed that the urbanization comprehensive index of Guangzhou showed an upward trend with the continuous advancement of urbanization,and the water resources security index increased in a certain time and gradually decreased after a certain time point.The response index of water resources security phase gradually reduced from positive to negative,and the response degree of water resources security had been changed from relative stability to a sharp increase.The security pressure and development of water resources were the two major factors that affecting the evolution of water resources security response in Guangzhou.