中国经济新旧动能演化的空间特征及效应分析

Spatial Characters and Impacts Analysis of the Evolution on New and Old Drivers of China\s Economy

【目的】研究中国经济新旧动能的空间演化特征及效应,为加快中国经济新旧动能转换进程,促进中国经济由高速增长向高质量发展提供参考。【方法】运用反距离权重插值法、重心迁移模型、空间杜宾模型等方法对中国经济新旧动能演化的空间特征及效应进行多维分析。【结果】中国经济新旧动能呈东高西低的空间分布格局;地理重心从东部向西南方向迁移,区间差异有逐步收敛趋势;新兴动能比传统动能扩散迁移速度更快;新旧动能各项指标对经济增长均具有正向促进效应,但部分动能指标的促进作用尚不明显。优化中国经济动能,需要发展新兴动能,加快新旧动能转换进程;增强外溢效应,缩小新旧动能区间差异;逆转弱势动能,提升新旧动能整体效应。【结论】从空间结构视角来研究能更好揭示中国经济新旧动能的演化路径及真实效应,从而找到更具针对性的政策措施来促进中国经济新旧动能的顺利转换。

[Purposes]Recognize the spatial characteristics and impacts of the evolution on new and old drivers of China\s economy,speed up the transition from old to new drivers,promote the development of China\s economy from high-speed growth to highquality.[Methods]Adopting Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation,Gravity Center Migration Model,and Spatial Durbin Measurement Model among other methods,it conducts a multidimensional analysis of the spatial characters and studies their impacts on the evolution of China’s economy drivers.[Findings]The economy drivers are high in eastern China and low in western China;the geographical center of economic drivers moves from east to southwest,the difference between new and old drivers tends to converge gradually among regions;the diffusion and shift of new drivers are much faster than those of old drivers;and all indicators of new and old drivers have positive effects on China\s economic growth,but some of them are insignificant.So the essential way to optimize China\s economic drivers is to develop new drivers and speed up the transition from old drivers to new ones,enhance the spillover effects and narrow the gap between old and new drivers among regions,and strengthen economy drivers and improve the overall efficiency of them.[Conclusions]From the perspective of spatial structure,the path and impacts of the evolution on new and old drivers of China\s economy will be revealed better,and more targeted policy and measures will be used to promote the transition of China\s economy from old to new drivers smoothly.