“东道国引资偏好”下企业对外直接投资进入策略选择的演化博弈分析

A Study of the Entry Strategy Choices of Enterprises’ Outward Foreign Direct Investment under the Host Country Investment Preference Based on Evolutionary Game Perspective

基于东道国倾向于绿地新建投资的引资偏好视角,利用演化博弈理论考察"东道国引资偏好"对企业OFDI进入模式选择的影响。通过Hotelling模型建立资本密集型企业(知识或技术密集度较高)和劳动密集型企业(资本含量较低、劳动力需求较大)海外市场进入模式决策的演化博弈模型,分析东道国引资偏好下两类企业OFDI进入模式选择的变迁机理。本文发现:在企业对外直接投资的进程中,当东道国对绿地新建投资具有较强的引资偏好并提供力度较大的政策支持(减免税等优惠)时,市场会出现两类企业都通过绿地新建投资进入国际市场的演化均衡状态;反之,当选择绿地新建投资模式的外资企业因"东道国引资偏好"而能够获得的政策支持力度(便利条件)较小时,市场不会达到各类企业或其中的一部分企业均选择某一种市场进入方式(并购或新建)进行对外直接投资的稳定状态。此时,各类企业在不同时期的国际市场进入方式选择及其影响因素具有差异性,"东道国引资偏好"对于外资企业在当地的绿地新建投资行为的促进作用不显著。同时,本文通过实际OFDI案例对研究结论进行了佐证,并且展开了相关的讨论。

By the perspective of host country preference for green-field investment,this research investigates the effect of host country investment preference on the OFDI investors’ entry mode choices based on evolutionary game theory. With an evolutionary game model of capital-intensive enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises’ OFDI entry strategy selection which is built on Hotelling model,the paper analyzes the change mechanism of two types of enterprises’ OFDI mode strategies under the host country investment preference. The research results are as follows: In the process of enterprises’ outward foreign direct investment,compared to overseas mergers & acquisitions,if the host country has a strong investment preference for green-field investment( the newly start-ups),and the policy support provided( subsidies,investment facilitation,etc.) is larger,this market will reach an evolutionary equilibrium( EE) that capital-intensive enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises all enter overseas markets through green-field investment. On the contrary,if the preferential policy support or investment facilitation that foreign investors entered through green-field investment can obtain is smaller,there do not appear a steady state in the market that all kinds of or part of the enterprises all choose one of the two entry strategies of OFDI,the OFDI entry strategy of enterprises and its influencing factors in different periods are varied,the host country investment preference has no significant promotional effect on the green-field new investment of OFDI. In addition,a practical example of outward foreign direct investment is given for the research results and made some relevant discussions in this paper.