“逆全球化”是否冲击了中国对外直接投资

Does“De-globalization”Have an Impact on China’s Foreign Direct Investment

基于熵理论计算出世界各国“逆全球化”程度,通过“就近集中权衡”理论解释“逆全球化”程度对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响机制,并使用2003~2018年我国对全球107个国家的OFDI数据,实证检验东道国“逆全球化”程度对我国OFDI的影响。研究表明:(1)依据测算的全球“逆全球化”指数,2016年以后“逆全球化”已经打破了原有的经济全球化趋势。(2)东道国的“逆全球化”水平对中国OFDI造成负向冲击。(3)东道国政治风险强化了“逆全球化”对中国OFDI的负面影响,而贸易壁垒却呈现相反效应。(4)中国的OFDI对发达国家“逆全球化”造成的负面冲击更敏感。从实证结论出发,就应对“逆全球化”冲击、深化中国对外开放战略提出政策建议。

Based on entropy theory,the degree of“de-globalization”of countries around the world is measured.The theory of“proximity—concentration”the influence mechanism of“de-globalization”on Chinese foreign direct investment(OFDI).Empirical this article tests the influence of host country’s“de-globalization”measures on Chinese OFDI through China’s investment data from 2003 to 2018.The results show that:(1)According to the calculated“de-globalization”index,“de-globalization”has broken the original trend of economic globalization after 2016.(2)The“de-globalization”of the host country has a negative impact on Chinese enterprises’direct investment in the country.(3)The host country’s political risk strengthens the negative impact of the host country’s“anti-globalization”phenomenon on Chinese OFDI,while trade barriers weaken this negative impact.(4)Chinese OFDI is more sensitive to the negative impact of developed countries’“de-globalization”.Finally,this paper gives relevant policy suggestions.