突发事件下铁路系统客流动态分配模型研究

Research on the Dynamic Allocation Model of Railway System Passenger Flow in an Emergency

为了较为准确地分析突发事件对旅客服务的影响程度,提高突发事件下的列车服务水平,在阐述铁路突发事件定义和分类的基础上,对突发事件下铁路服务水平变化进行分析,构建时空网络图模型,综合考虑相关时间需求、突发事件引起的列车服务水平变化及车辆容量等因素,建立以旅客为导向的突发事件客流动态分配模型,设计模拟旅客动态乘降过程的算法,基于该算法实现对个体旅客延误时间的汇总,从而达到评估给定的调车方案或应急计划性能的目的,为铁路应急管理及决策支持提供参考。

To accurately analyze the impact of emergencies on passenger service and improve train service in emergencies, after expounding on the definition and classification of railway emergencies, we analyzed the change in train service in emergencies and built a time-space network diagram model. Considering factors such as vehicle capacity and variation in train service caused by time requirements and emergencies, we constructed a passenger-oriented dynamic allocation model of passenger flow in emergencies and designed an algorithm for the dynamic transfer of passengers. On this basis, we summarized the delay of individual passengers to assess the performance of a given shunting solution or emergency plan, providing a theoretical basis for the emergency management and decision support of the railway system.