基于准自然实验的城市轨道交通对劳动生产率的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Urban Rail Transit on Labor Productivity Based on Quasi-natural Experiments

为探究城市轨道交通对于城市发展的作用,在阐述城市轨道交通对劳动生产率的影响分析基础上,利用2003—2019年我国32个大中城市数据,构建多期双重差分法实证检验城市轨道交通的建成与发展对劳动生产率的影响。结果表明,城市轨道交通建成能显著促进城市劳动生产率的提高,且城市轨道交通人均里程与城市劳动生产率呈倒"U"型关系;城市轨道交通的建设对于大中城市劳动生产率具有促进作用,在高行政级别城市的效应最强;在城市轨道交通对城市劳动生产率的影响方面,人口集聚具有遮掩效应,产业结构和城市规模具有正向的中介效应。

To explore the role of urban rail transit in urban development, after analyzing the impact of urban rail transit on labor productivity, we collected data from 32 large and medium-sized cities in China during 2003–2019, and constructed a multi-period difference-in-difference(DID) model to empirically assess the impact of the construction and development of urban rail transit on labor productivity. The results show that the construction of urban rail transit can strongly promote the improvement of urban labor productivity, and the per capita mileage of urban rail transit has an inverted U-shaped relationship with urban labor productivity. The construction of urban rail transit can promote labor productivity in large and medium-sized cities, and the effect is the strongest in cities at high administrative levels. In terms of the impact of urban rail transit on urban labor productivity, population agglomeration has a masking effect, and industrial structure and urban scale have a positive mediation effect.