衡水市设施农业大风灾害风险分析

Risk Analysis of Gale Dis-aster in Hengshui Facility Agriculture

采用衡水市11个国家地面气象站(1984—2019年)和128个区域地面气象站(2014—2019年)的逐日观测数据、2019年衡水市设施农业经济数据及设施农业大风灾情历史资料,选取日极大风速作为大风灾害强度指标,基于灾害风险评估理论,利用极值概率分布模式对不同重现期下衡水市风灾致灾因子危险性进行分析;结合致灾因子、承灾体属性构建不同类别设施农业“风速-损失率”脆弱性曲线;综合考虑致灾因子、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性影响,对衡水市不同类别设施农业在不同重现期下的损失风险进行分析。结果表明:随着重现期的增加,大风致灾强度、影响范围和经济损失同时增大;在衡水市东北部地区危险性较高,其中,深州市中部、武强县东北部、阜城县北部及饶阳县北部区域风灾危险性最高;设施农业大风灾害经济损失风险主要集中在饶阳县东北部地区,并随着重现期的增加,损失范围逐渐扩大,经济损失不断增加。

Based on the daily observation data of 11 national surface meteorological stations(1984~2019)and 128 regional surface meteorological stations(2014~2019),the economic data of Hengshui facility agriculture in 2019 and the historical data of facility agriculture gale disaster,the daily maximum wind speed was selected as the index of gale disaster intensity,and the disaster risk assessment theory was used to evaluate the daily maximum wind speed,the extreme probability distribution model is used to analyze the risk of wind disaster factors in Hengshui City under different return periods;The vulnerability curves of"wind speed loss rate"for different types of facility agriculture were constructed by combining disaster causing factors and disaster bearing body attributes;The loss risk of different types of facility agriculture in Hengshui City in different return periods was analyzed comprehensively considering the impact of disaster causing factors,disaster bearing body exposure and vulnerability.The results show that:with the increase of return period,the disaster intensity,influence scope and economic loss of gale increase at the same time;The risk of wind disaster is higher in the northeast of Hengshui City,among which the risk of wind disaster is the highest in the middle of Shenzhou City,the northeast of Wuqiang County,the north of Fucheng county and the north of Raoyang County;The economic loss risk of facility agriculture is mainly concentrated in the northeast of Raoyang County,and with the increase of return period,the scope of loss is gradually expanded,and the economic loss is increasing.