“一带一路”数字服务出口增加值、价值链地位及其决定因素——基于全球多区域投入产出模型的实证研究

Added Value of Export of Digital Services in“The Belt and Road”,Position of the Value Chain,and Determining Factors——Empirical Study Based on the World Input-output Database

本文基于WIOD数据库,采用全球多区域投入产出模型和实证计量模型,从全球价值链视角考察“一带一路”数字服务出口增加值、分工地位及其决定因素。结果表明:(1)各国数字服务出口国内和国外增加值的差异性非常显著,中国、德国和英国的出口增加值规模位列前三,印度的信息通信和英国的金融保险极具国际竞争优势。(2)商业服务的全球价值链参与度最高,信息服务最低;大多数国家出口国外增加值大于间接国内增加值,发达国家在分工中处于绝对优势,但中国和印度等部分发展中国家呈快速提升态势;中国数字服务贸易“大而不强”,特别是信息通信和视听文娱部门亟待转型。(3)各国电信和信息服务的分工地位呈现先降后升态势;日本的电信和信息服务优势最为显著,印度次之。(4)垂直专业化、创新能力和互联网应用对分工地位均为正向影响,并且分别对商业服务、信息通信和视听文娱的影响最大;贸易渗透率具有显著负向效应,对发展中国家的影响更大;发展程度和人均GDP的影响均为正向。在此基础上,提出了相应的对策建议。

This paper,based on the world input-output table provided by WIOD database,re-examined the value decomposition,position in labor division and decisive factors of“the Belt and Road”digital service export from the perspective of global value chain by using the multiregional input-output model and empirical econometric model.The research found that:(1)The difference in the domestic and foreign added values of export of digital services in different countries is very big.The scale of the added value of export in China,Germany,and the UK is the top three.Information communication in India and financial insurance in the UK have a big international competitive advantage.(2)The degree of participation of commercial services in the global value chain is the highest and that of the information service is the lowest;in most countries,the foreign added value of export is higher than the indirect domestic added value and the developed countries have absolute advantages in the division of labor,but some developing countries such as China and India have the trend of fast rising;the digital service trading in China is“large-scale but not strong”,and especially the information communication and audio and video entertainment sector urgently need the transformation and upgrading.(3)In different countries the position of telecommunication and information service in the division of labor has the trend of declining before rising;and the telecommunication and information service advantages of Japan are the most obvious,followed by India.(4)Vertical specialization,innovation ability,and application of the Internet all have a positive influence on the position in the division of labor,and the biggest influence on commercial service,information communication,and audio and video entertainment;the penetration rate of trading has the obvious negative effect and greater influence in developing countries;the influence on development and the per capita GDP is both positive;Based on the above results,suggestions are put forward.