近十年国家级农业气象灾害预报评估业务技术进展

Advance in Operational Technology of Agrometeorological Disaster Forecasting and Assessment in China in Recent 10 Years

近十年来,伴随农业气象灾害监测评估理论的发展,数值模拟技术、遥感监测技术和现代信息技术的综合应用,以及智能网格气象要素预报在农业气象灾害监测预报业务中的落地,促进了农业气象灾害预报评估业务的精细化、动态化和定量化水平,为农业防灾减损、稳产增产发挥了重要作用。介绍了近十年来定量化农业气象灾害评估技术以及动态化、精细化农业气象灾害预报技术的主要研发成果以及在业务服务中的应用,并展望未来发展,以期为农业气象灾害预报评估业务的进一步发展提供借鉴和参考。

In recent 10 years,the refinement level and dynamic,quantitative capacity of agrometeorological disaster forecasting and assessment have been promoted accompanied with the development of the agrometeorological disaster monitoring and assessment theory,the comprehensive use of numerical simulation technology,remote sensing monitoring technology,and modern information technology,as well as the application of intelligent grid meteorological element prediction in agrometeorological disaster monitoring and forecasting operation.All these have played an important role in agricultural disaster prevention and reduction and in yield improvement.In this paper,the main research and service achievements of dynamic,quantitative and refined agrometeorological disaster forecasting and assessment in recent 10 years are introduced,and the future development trend is looked forward to so as to provide a reference for the further development of agrometeorological disaster forecasting and assessment services.