新农保对贫困脆弱农户消费的影响

The Impact of New Rural Pension Program on Consumption of Poor and Vulnerable Farmers

贫困脆弱农户是巩固脱贫攻坚成果和相对贫困治理的重点关注人群。文章基于消费视角,利用家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年和2018年数据,使用绝对贫困线(2300元/年)和相对贫困标准(每人每天3.2美元)下的贫困脆弱性指标,利用PSM-DDD模型分析新农保对贫困脆弱农户消费及其结构的影响,并进一步根据参保状态、年龄展开群体异质性分析。研究发现:(1)在绝对贫困标准下,参与新农保对贫困脆弱农户的人均总消费能力有促进作用;而对消费结构而言,参与新农保能显著增加衣着鞋帽、日常和文教娱乐的消费,但会明显降低医疗保健支出。上述影响在相对贫困线下并不显著。(2)群体异质性分析显示,在绝对贫困线下,缴费参与新农保显著增加了贫困脆弱农户的人均总消费支出,并提高了食品、日常和文教娱乐的消费;而领取新农保则显著降低了贫困脆弱农户的人均总消费水平,并对文教娱乐的支出产生抑制效应。上述影响在相对贫困线下则基本不显著。(3)年龄异质性分析表明,参与新农保对60周岁以上群体的人均总消费有促进作用,但由于低保障水平而不显著。新农保作为社会保障政策的重要抓手,在进一步构建解决相对贫困的长效机制中发挥着重要作用。论文揭示的关于新农保对贫困脆弱农户消费影响的结论,可为该政策的改进提供具体方向。

Poor and vulnerable rural households are the key focus groups for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and the governance of relative poverty.Starting from the consumption perspective,this paper adopts the 2010 and 2018 data of CFPS,using the poverty vulnerability indicators under the absolute poverty line(2300 yuan per year)and the relative poverty standard(3.2 dollars per person per day)and a PSM-DDD model to empirically analyze the impact of the new rural pension program on the consumption and its structure of poor and vulnerable farmers.We further analyze the heterogeneity impacts of new rural pension program according to the state of participation and age cohort.We found under the absolute poverty standard,participating in the new rural pension program can increase per capita total consumption of poor and vulnerable farmers.In terms of consumption structure,participating in the new rural pension program can significantly increase expenditures of dress,daily life,education and entertainment.But it will significantly reduce medical and health care expenditures.The above-mentioned effects are not significant under the relative poverty line.Group heterogeneity impacts analysis shows that under the absolute poverty line,those who pay the premium and participate in the new rural pension program significantly increases per capita total consumption of poor and vulnerable farmers,and increases the expenditures of food,daily life,education and entertainment.While receiving the new rural pension significantly reduces per capita total consumption of poor and vulnerable farmers,and has a restraining effect on the expenditure of education and entertainment.The aforementioned impacts are basically insignificant under the relative poverty line.Age heterogeneity impacts analysis shows that participating in the new rural pension program has a positive effect on per capita total consumption of people over 60 years old,but it is not significant due to the low pension level.As an important part of the social security policy and with economic and social development,the new rural pension program needs to be further improved in order to further assist in building a long-term mechanism for solving relative poverty in China.The conclusions disclosed in this article can provide specific directions for the improvement of this policy.