中国拓展大豆进口来源的可能性分析

The Possibility of Chinese Expanding Soybean Import Sources

随着中美经贸摩擦的日益升级,围绕大豆能否摆脱对美国进口依赖的讨论不绝于耳。本文基于国内大豆需求长期强劲增长的事实,探究中国拓展大豆进口来源的途径,发现短期内可增加对中国出口大豆的国家仅有乌克兰、加拿大和俄罗斯,拓展国外大豆进口来源需支付较高的额外成本,增加国内大豆产量进而取代自美国大豆进口的难度很大。长期来看,潜在国扩大大豆种植的土地充足,但需要大量投资,且受到生态环境的制约;中国拓展大豆进口的运输条件通畅,但受相关国家贸易政策的影响较大。因此,提出研究大豆贸易潜力、扩大海外农业投资、推进大豆振兴计划、拓宽大豆进口渠道的政策建议。

With the increasing escalation of China-US economic and trade frictions, there are more and more discussions about whether China can get rid of the dependence on American soybean import.Based on the fact that China’s soybean demand has been growing strongly for a long time, we have explored the way for China to expand the source of soybean import.We find that in the short run, only Ukraine, Canada and Russia can greatly increase soybean exports to China, and there would be very high additional cost to expand the foreign soybean import sources.It is pretty difficult to increase China’s domestic soybean production to replace its import from the United States.In the long run, the potential countries have enough land to expand soybean planting, but it needs a lot of investment and is easily restricted by the ecological environment;the transportation conditions for expanding soybean import in China are good, but China’s soybean import is greatly affected by the relevant national trade policies.Therefore, we put forward a series of suggestions, such as to study soybean trade potential, expand overseas agricultural investment, promote soybean revitalization plan, and broaden soybean import channels.