信用要素推进“双循环”新发展格局的机制研究——基于中国1995-2018年数据的实证分析

Research on the Mechanism of Credit Elements Promoting the“Double Circulation”New Development Pattern:An Empirical Analysis based on China′s 1995-2018 Data

现代市场经济是信用经济,构建“双循环”新发展格局需要关注信用要素。本文将信用要素引入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,测算了信用规模对经济增长的贡献率,并基于1995-2018年中国31个省市的面板数据构建动态面板模型研究不同信用主体信用规模在经济增长中的作用效果。研究结果表明:我国信用规模对经济增长的贡献率大于其他行业;政府部门信用对经济增长呈现双重作用。政府应重视社会信用体系建设,不断提升政府公信力;企业和个人应加强自身信用建设意识,通过信用要素多维度激发经济活力,畅通国内国际双循环。

The modern market economy is credit economy,the construction of“double circulation”new development pattern needs to pay attention to credit elements.This paper introduces credit elements into Cobb-Douglas production function,calculates the contribution rate of credit scale to economic growth,and constructs dynamic panel model by selecting the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2018 to study the effect of credit scale of different credit subjects on economic growth.The results show that the contribution rate of credit scale to economic growth is greater than that of other industries;the credit of government departments plays a dual role in economic growth.Government should pay attention to the construction of social credit system to constantly enhance government credibility;enterprises and individuals should strengthen their own awareness of credit construction to multi-dimensionally stimulate economic vitality through credit elements and smooth domestic and international double circulation.