跨境贸易人民币结算背景下汇率变动对工资的影响——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

The Impact of Exchange Rate Change on Wages under the Background of RMB Settlement of Cross-border Trade——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

在跨境贸易人民币结算实施背景下,推导出汇率变动作用于工资的全新贸易路径,并使用2000—2019年我国的省际面板数据进行研究。研究发现跨境贸易人民币结算的实施能够削弱人民币汇率变动通过修正后的净出口份额贸易路径对我国工资水平的影响。在人民币升值背景下,跨境贸易人民币结算比重的提高会缩小企业面临的汇率风险敞口,有利于企业节约汇兑和避险成本,从而有助于改善企业的经营状况并提升我国总体的工资水平。对于对外贸依存度、外商投资比重、教育投入水平较高的地区和所有制垄断程度较低的地区以及“一带一路”地区中人民币结算业绩指数突出和以出口为导向的地区而言,人民币升值亦能促进其工资水平的提升。还将跨境贸易人民币结算政策的出台作为准自然实验,利用双重差分法研究,发现相关政策的出台对于试点地区的工资增长具有显著的促进作用。

In the context of the implementation of cross-border trade settlement in RMB,a new trade path of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on wages is deduced,and the study is conducted using the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2019.It is found that the implementation of cross-border RMB settlement can weaken the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s wage level through the revised net export share trade path.Under the background of RMB appreciation,the increase of the proportion of cross-border trade settlement in RMB will reduce the exchange rate risk exposure of enterprises and help enterprises save exchange and hedging costs,thus helping to improve the operating conditions of enterprises and raise the overall wage level in China.For the regions with high dependence on foreign trade,proportion of foreign investment,education investment level and low degree of ownership monopoly,as well as the regions with outstanding RMB settlement performance index and export-oriented in the“One Belt And One Road”region,RMB appreciation can also promote the improvement of their wage level.The paper also takes the introduction of cross-border trade RMB settlement policy as a quasi-natural experiment and studies it by using the differential method.It finds that the introduction of relevant policies has a significant promoting effect on the wage growth in the pilot areas.