劳动力流动对欠发达地区农村家庭多维贫困的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Labor Mobility on Multidimensional Poverty of Rural Families in Underdeveloped Areas

建构多维贫困指标体系,以2012年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据为基础,利用“收入导向型”多维贫困指数方法测度了欠发达地区农村家庭的贫困状况,并采用随机效应Probit模型实证分析了劳动力外流对欠发达地区农村家庭多维贫困的内在影响。在此基础上比较了一维、二维、三维和四维等不同维度之间的差异化影响,还进一步考察了劳动力流动微观决策的变化(持续外出务工、由外出务工到不外出务工、由不外出务工到外出务工)对农村家庭贫困状态变动(脱贫、未脱贫、返贫、未返贫)的动态影响。结果表明劳动力流动能够有效降低欠发达地区农村家庭收入贫困及多维贫困发生的概率;男性外出务工人员人数相比女性对缓解多维贫困的边际贡献更高,选择跨省务工的减贫效应更为显著,然而随着贫困维度的增加,劳动力流动对贫困的边际效应呈现逐渐减弱特征。此外,持续外出务工不仅可以有效提高欠发达地区农村家庭单维和多维的脱贫概率,而且能够降低农村家庭重返贫困的可能性;由非外出务工向外出务工的微观决策转变也有助于缓解贫困,不过其边际贡献低于持续外出务工的家庭。户主特征、家庭特征中的不同控制变量对农村家庭多维贫困存在差异化的内在影响。

Based on the 2012 and 2014 Chinese Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)data,a multidimensional poverty index system was constructed to measure the poverty status of rural families in underdeveloped areas using the“income-oriented”multidimensional poverty index method.In addition,stochastic effect Probit model is used to empirically analyze the internal influence of labor outflow on multi-dimensional poverty of rural families in underdeveloped areas.Based on the comparison of the one dimensional,two dimensional,three and four dimensions such as the differentiation between different dimensions,further investigates the change of the labor mobility micro decision-making(continuous out-migrating for work,from out-migrating for work to not out-migrating for work,from not out-migrating for work to out-migrating for work)to the countryside family poverty change(out of poverty,not out of poverty,back to poverty,not back to poverty)dynamic effect.The results show that labor mobility can effectively reduce the probability of rural family income poverty and multidimensional poverty in underdeveloped areas;compared with women,the number of male migrant workers has a higher marginal contribution to alleviating multidimensional poverty,and the poverty reduction effect of choosing trans-provincial migrant workers is more significant;however,with the increase of poverty dimension,the marginal effect of labor mobility on poverty is gradually weakened.In addition,continuous migrant work can not only effectively improve the probability of single and multi-dimensional poverty alleviation of rural families in less developed areas,but also reduce the possibility of rural families returning to poverty;the micro decision to shift from non-migrant workers to migrant workers also helps to alleviate poverty,but its marginal contribution is lower than that of households that continue to migrate.Different control variables in the characteristics of household head and family have different internal effects on the multidimensional poverty of rural families.