北京市手足口病流行特征分析及气象因素对其发病的影响

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics of hand foot mouth disease and the influence of meteorological factors on its incidence in Beijing

目的研究北京市手足口病的流行特征以及气象因素对手足口病发病的影响,为其预警预测以及防控提供科学依据。方法采用R 4.0.2软件对2010—2019年北京市手足口病的流行特征进行描述性统计,同时利用分布滞后非线性模型分析2015—2019日均气温、日均相对湿度、日均降水量、日均气压、日均风速等气象资料与手足口病发病的效应关系。结果2010—2019年北京市手足口病共报告发病324864例,平均发病率为155.10/10万。5~7月是每年手足口病发病高峰期。日均气温、日均相对湿度和日均降水与手足口病发病均呈正相关(rs分别为0.66、0.45和0.24,P值分别为0.0000、0.0000和0.0000);日均风速、日均气压与手足口病发病均呈负相关(rs分别为-0.14和-0.3,P值分别为2.22×10^(-9)和0.0000)。当日均气温为25.5℃,滞后10 d时RR值最大,为1.41(95%CI:1.12~1.77)。当相对湿度为84.5%,滞后15d时RR值最大,为1.51(95%CI:1.34~1.70)。日均风速为3m/s,滞后14d时RR值最大,为1.22(95%CI:0.86~1.73)。日均气压为842.5百帕,滞后5d时RR值最大,为1.20(95%CI:0.66~2.07)。日均降水为166.5mm,滞后7d时RR值最大,为4.37(95%CI:1.61~11.84)。当符合上述气象因素条件则手足口病发病风险最高。结论日均气温、日均相对湿度、日均降水量、日均气压、日均风速等气象因素与手足口病的发病密切相关,呈非线性且有一定的滞后性,可用于预测手足口病发生风险和流行强度,为传染病的防控、预警预测提供科学依据。

Objective To study the epidemic characteristics of hand foot mouth disease(HFMD)and the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019,and to provide scientific evidence for the warning,prediction,prevention and control of HFMD.Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted to analyze the epidemic characteristics of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019 using R4.0.2 software,and the relationship between meteorological factors such as daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity,daily average precipitation,daily average air pressure,and daily average wind speed and HFMD incidence from 2015 to 2019 was analyzed by using distribution lag nonlinear model.Results In 2010-2019,a total of 324864 HFMD cases were reported in Beijing,with an average incidence rate of 155.10/100000.May to July was the annual peak of HFMD.The average daily temperature,relative humidity and precipitation were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD(Rs=0.66,0.45 and 0.24,P=0.0000,0.0000 and 0.0000,respectively).The average daily wind speed and pressure were negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD(Rs=-0.14 and-0.3,P=2.22×10^(-9) and 0.0000,respectively).The RR was the highest when the air temperature was 25℃and at the lag of 10 day,which was 1.41(95%CI:1.12-1.77).Humid weather conditions were the risk factors of HFMD,and the influence time was relatively long.The RR was the highest when the relative humidity was 84.5%and the lag was 15 days,which was 1.51(95%CI:1.34-1.70).When daily average wind speed was 3m/s,and the lag was 14 days,the RR was the highest,which was 1.22(95%CI:0.86-1.73).The RR was the highest when the daily average pressure was 842.5 hPa and the lag was 5 day,which was 1.20(95%CI:0.66-2.07).When the daily average precipitation was 166.5 mm and the lag was 7 days,the RR was the highest,which was 4.37(95%CI:1.61-11.84).When the above meteorological conditions were met,the risk of HFMD was the highest.Conclusion Meteorological factors such as daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity,daily average precipitation,daily average pressure and daily average wind speed are closely related to the incidence of HFMD,which is nonlinear and has certain lag.It can be used to predict the risk and epidemic intensity of HFMD,and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control,early warning,and prediction of infectious diseases.