银川市夏季空气质量状况及多模式预报系统的应用

Application of the Summer Air Quality Multi-model Forecast System in Yinchuan

为提升银川市环境空气质量预报能力、提高银川市夏季环境空气质量预报准确率,依据2020年6-8月份国家环境空气质量监测网的观测数据,利用统计学分析方法对银川市环境空气质量预报预警系统的CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem以及统计模式的预报结果进行对比分析。结果表明,在该时段空气质量变化过程中,各模式能够较好地预测污染物日变化趋势,但不存在最优的单模式,不同模式对同一污染物的预测结果存在差异,模型的本地化程度还有待提高,准确率还有待进一步提升。

In order to improve the ability of Yinchuan environmental air quality forecast and improve the accuracy of Yinchuan environmental air quality forecast in summer,the forecast results of CMAQ,CAMx,WRF-Chem are analyzed according to the observation data of the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network from June to August in 2020.The results show that in the process of air quality changes in this period,each model can better predict the daily trend of pollutants,but there is no optimal single model.Different models have different prediction results for the same pollutant.The localization of the model remains to be improved,the accuracy rate needs to be further improved.