生态文明建设是否抑制了碳排放?——来自福建生态文明先行示范区建设的经验证据

Whether the Ecological Civilization Construction Suppresses Carbon Emission?:Empirical Evidence from the Construction of the First Demonstration Zone of Ecological Civilization in Fujian

生态文明先行示范区建设是生态文明建设的重要战略部署,福建省作为全国首个生态文明先行示范区承担着生态文明建设先行先试的重要责任。在2030年前实现二氧化碳排放达峰的背景下,利用2008—2017年全国省级面板数据,采用合成控制法评估和考察福建生态文明先行示范区建设对二氧化碳排放量的影响效应。首先,从规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和生态保护效应四个方面阐述了福建生态文明先行示范区建设对碳排放的影响路径,理论分析表明福建生态文明先行示范区建设通过改变福建的经济发展模式、优化产业结构、促进企业的技术进步以及进一步提升生态环境保护意识达到降低福建的二氧化碳排放量;其次,采用合成控制法实证研究发现,生态文明先行示范区建设对减少福建碳排放量具有一年的时滞和持续抑制影响效应,此外还利用安慰剂检验和排列检验做进一步的稳健性检验,检验结果增强了上述影响效应的可靠性。最后,采用中介效应模型验证生态文明先行示范区建设对碳排放的影响路径,结果表明规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和生态保护效应确实是福建生态文明先行示范区建设抑制碳排放量的部分中介效应。研究结论可为更好地推广生态文明建设经验、进一步提高生态文明建设的碳减排效应提供理论依据和参考价值。

The construction of ecological civilization demonstration area is an important strategic deployment of ecological civilization construction.Fujian province,as the first ecological civilization demonstration area in China,undertakes the important responsibility of ecological civilization construction.Under the background of reaching the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,using the national provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017,this paper uses the synthetic control method to evaluate and investigate the effect of Fujian ecological civilization demonstration zone construction on carbon dioxide emissions.First of all,this paper expounds the influence path of Fujian ecological civilization advance demonstration zone construction on carbon emission from four aspects:scale effect,structure effect,technology effect and ecological protection effect.Theoretical analysis shows that the construction of Fujian ecological civilization demonstration zone can reduce Fujian’s carbon dioxide emissions by changing Fujian’s economic development model,optimizing industrial structure,promoting the technological progress of enterprises and further enhancing the awareness of eco-environmental protection.Secondly,by using the synthetic control method,it is found that the construction of ecological civilization demonstration zone has a one-year lag and continuous inhibitory effect on reducing carbon emissions in Fujian province.In addition,the placebo test and permutation test are used to do further robustness test,and the test results enhance the reliability of the above effects.Finally,the intermediary effect model is used to verify the influence path of the construction of ecological civilization advance demonstration zone on carbon emissions.The results show that scale effect,structure effect,technology effect and ecological protection effect are indeed some of the intermediary effects of Fujian ecological civilization advance demonstration zone construction to restrain carbon emissions.The conclusions of this paper can provide theoretical basis and reference value for better popularizing the experience of ecological civilization construction and further improving the carbon emission reduction effect of ecological civilization construction.