朝美核谈判的特点与前景——基于数据分析的视角

The Characteristics and Prospect of US-DPRK Nuclear Talks--On the Basis of Data Analysis

朝美核谈判是一个非常艰难的过程。目前学术界相关成果时效性强,以定性研究方法为主。朝美核谈判过程中有两个关键变量,分别是朝美核谈判和朝鲜军事宣示与行为。这两个变量指标值的统计学分析说明朝美核谈判过程的主旋律是和谈与对峙同时发生,且此消彼长;美国总体上基本保持了较稳定的与朝对话趋势,但朝鲜与美国谈判的意愿渐趋走低;朝美首脑峰会将给双方和谈带来更多的不确定性与损害;朝美核谈判的前景不容乐观。朝鲜国内情况并非美国认知的"即将崩溃或终将崩溃"。美国的这一错误预判影响了美国对朝政策的制定,是朝美核谈判屡陷僵局的原因之一。

The nuclear talks between North Korea and America is tough and complicated.Most of the relative studies focus on the hot issues of the time and favor the method of qualitative research.There are two significant variables in the US-DPRK nuclear talks:the nuclear talks between the two countries and DPRK’s provocations.The statistical analysis of the two variables shows that the peace talks and confrontation between the two countries usually take place alternatively.The prospect of US-DPRK nuclear talks is not optimistic,since the willingness of DPRK to negotiate with America decreases gradually,though America has maintained a stable trend of dialogue with DPRK;meanwhile,the US-DPRK summit will bring more uncertainties and damage to the peace talks.America’s prediction that North Korea is about to collapse is wrong,and it has affected the formulation of America’s foreign policy towards North Korea,which partly leads to the gloomy prospect of the US-DPRK nuclear talks.