基于切比雪夫不等式地震人员伤亡评估

Assessment of earthquake casualties based on Chebyshev inequality

地震人员伤亡评估是震害预测及震后快速评估的一项重要工作,为震前预防和震后应急提供必要的技术支持。地震人员伤亡情况是承灾体抗震能力的反映,具有很大的不确定性,已有地震人员伤亡评估方法众多,但很少能兼顾结构易损性的同时并给出不确定性的评估结果。本文基于建筑结构易损性,提出基于切比雪夫不等式的人员伤亡评估模型,给出人员伤亡评估结果的不确定性函数曲线。结合算例,对比分析了评估方法的适用性,给出震害损失的不确定性评估结果。

Assessment of earthquake casualties is an important job of earthquake damage prediction and rapid post-earthquake assessment,which provides necessary technical support for pre-earthquake prevention and post-earthquake emergency.Earthquake casualties can reflect the seismic capacity of the disaster-bearing body,which is of great uncertainty.Among the various methods to evaluate earthquake casualties,few give uncertain assessment results while taking into account the vulnerability of building structure.In this paper,based on the vulnerability of building structure,a casualty assessment model based on Chebyshev inequality is proposed,and the uncertainty function curve of casualty assessment results is given.Through an example,the applicability of the evaluation method is compared and analyzed,and the uncertainty assessment result of earthquake damage loss is given.