农业政策支持对粮食生产力的影响效应研究

Study on the Effect of Agricultural Policy Support on Food Productivity

本文着眼于农业支持政策中存在的一些问题,利用2007~2017年23个省份的面板数据,构建动态面板GMM模型,研究了小麦、水稻、玉米产区农业政策支持对粮食生产力的影响效应。结果表明:当前农业政策支持对我国粮食生产力有显著的激励效应。其中,财政支农政策通过同时影响小麦、水稻、玉米播种面积和单产来影响生产力,固定资产投资通过提高小麦、水稻单产来提高生产力,产业结构通过减少小麦、水稻、玉米播种面积来降低生产力,粮食价格对三种粮食生产力影响较小,农业保险政策、抗灾能力、化肥用量、机械化程度对我国粮食生产力都有正向效应。最后提出调整财政支农资金投入方向,增强两区农业基础投入,优化区域布局和要素投入,实行差异化粮食价格、农业现代化技术补贴标准等建议。

Improve agricultural support policies, consolidate the agricultural foundation, and consolidate and enhance food productivity is the latest food security development strategy proposed by the Central No. 1 Document in 2019. Based on the panel data of 23 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this paper constructs a dynamic panel GMM model to study the impact of agricultural policy support on grain productivity in wheat, rice and corn producing areas.The results show that the current agricultural policy support has a significant incentive effect on China′s grain productivity. The fiscal support policy affects productivity by affecting wheat, rice, corn planting area and yield, and fixed asset investment increases productivity by increasing wheat and rice yields. The industrial structure reduces productivity by reducing the area planted with wheat, rice and corn. Food prices have little impact on the three grain productivity, and agricultural insurance policies, resilience, fertilizer use, and mechanization have positive effects on China′s grain productivity. Finally, some suggestions were put forward, such as adjusting the direction of financial investment in agriculture, strengthening the basic investment in agriculture, optimizing the regional layout and factor input, implementing differentiated grain prices and subsidy standards for agricultural modernization technology.